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Economy and politics
February 9, 2010This is a democracy

On the cold winter day of February 07, Ukrainians voted for their next president. All polls and preliminary data from the Central Elections Commission point to the victory of Viktor Yanukovich, who heads the Party of Regions, the largest party in the Ukrainian Parliament. International observers confirm the absence of material fraud that could principally affect the election results. As a result, Ukraine should enter a period of relative political stability, with a new president who has majority support in the parliament, who will put in place a prime minister who is loyal to him. Ukraine’s next parliamentary elections should only be at the end of 2012.

Economy and politics
November 18, 2009It won`t be long before the sun shines bright: Macroeconomic update

It has been a while since economic crisis started in 3Q08. Currently we see some signals that economic downturn is over and recovery is expected in 2010. In this report we analyze current conditions, identify main risks and make forecasts on the state of Ukrainian economy until the end of 2009 and 2010.

Economy and politics
April 24, 2009IMF loan second tranche: market reaction

A memorandum on economic policy was sent to the IMF this week, Ukrainian officials have announced. The memorandum describes a number of actions aimed at stabilizing the economic situation in the country. The key points of the document will be announced once it is signed by the President, Prime-Minister, the Governor of the National Bank and the Minister of Finance.

Economy and politics
March 16, 2009Silent Spring: Macroeconomic Update

The economic crisis has been unwinding rapidly in Ukraine, forcing many economists to revise their earlier forecasts regarding the macroeconomic scenarios in 2009. Namely, the depth of the real sector downturn, the substantial devaluation of the hryvnia caused by panic on the foreign exchange market, and a weak government response to changing economic conditions are among the factors that were not entirely anticipated by either domestic or foreign analysts.

Economy and politics
December 10, 2008Belarus: country report

Belarus (literally translated as ‘White Rus’) is a landlocked economy in transition, located in Eastern Europe and neighboring Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

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Daily monitor

Economy and politics
March 1, 2010Real 2009 GDP lost 15%, official data

The State Statistics Committee released some initial official data on 2009 GDP. In nominal terms, it totalled UAH 913 bln, which is down 4% compared to UAH 950 bln in 2008. In USD terms, nominal GDP totalled USD 114 bln, which is a 37% contraction compared to USD 180 bln in 2008. GDP per capita in 2009 totalled USD 2.5 thsd.

Economy and politics
February 16, 2010Ukraine’s trade balance: better but still needs improvement

Ukraine’s trade balance in 2009 exhibited a USD 1.4 bln deficit. This is a significant improvement compared to the USD 13.3 bln trade deficit in 2008. Notably, the merchandise trade deficit in 2009 contracted to USD 5.7 bln from the USD 18.6 bln deficit in 2008. The monthly trade deficit in December 2009 widened to USD 0.9 bln, compared to USD 0.5 bln deficit registered in November 2009. The balance of goods was marked by a USD 4.3 bln surplus, a moderate decline compared to the USD 5.3 bln surplus witnessed in 2008.

Economy and politics
February 9, 2010Inflation accelerates in January 2010

CPI reached 1.8% MoM in January compared to 0.9% MoM in December 2009. This indicator is currently at its 12-month high. Compared to January 2009, CPI rose 11.1%, which is low compared to previous years, but still significant given theh 14% real GDP contraction in 2009. Inflation in the food sector, at 3.2% MoM, was the biggest contributing factor to January’s CPI. The prices of sugar (+14.7% MoM), vegetables (+14.3% MoM), cheese (+9.8% MoM), milk (+7.7% MoM) and butter (+6.2% MoM) saw the most significant hike.

Economy and politics
January 21, 2010Funds in State Treasury account drop to UAH 1.1 bln

The Secretariat of the President of Ukraine announced that, in 2009, the amount of funds in the State Treasury account have declined from UAH 7.7 bln. to UAH 1.1 bln. This essentially means that the State Treasury’s account balance continued to decline throughout 2009. At the moment, the publication of data on the status of the State Treasury’s account is suspended by a decree issued by Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko.

Economy and politics
January 19, 2010Ukraine’s industrial production fell by 21.9%YoY in 2009

Newly released data indicates that, in 2009, Ukrainian industrial output underwent a decrease of 21.9% YoY compared to the results of 2008. The information also indicated that, in December 2009, industrial output grew by 2.6% MoM relative to November.

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